JDPFu.com 2025

Some data about the swine flu outbreak that I find interesting. The rate of spread is important. As of Thursday, the rate of spread appears to be slowing, except in Mexico where I expect it will eventually hit 2000 confirmed cases once their laboratory backlog is cleared.

Supercomputer models are reported to predict an explosion in cases next week and are warning that we aren’t doing enough to isolate our selves.

So far in 2009, about 13,000 people have died from normal flu complications in the USA. In a normal year, 36,000 people in the USA die.

Number of Cases Over Time

Mexico doesn’t/didn’t have laboratory capacity to test every sample, so those numbers are confirmed only. Not all of these numbers are perfect. I’ve started using WHO as the source for counts. Mexican confirmed counts appear to be off so much that these numbers are nearly meaning less. There were over 1800 suspected cases in Mexico on 4/28.
Laboratory confirmed cases are used in the USA. Obviously, labs take a day or two from the time the sample is taken to be processed.

• Google Map of known cases. This isn’t my map and it doesn’t appear to be completely accurate.
• The World Health Organization site.
• The CDC Swineflu site.

From prior reading, exponential increases in the number of cases is to be expected, so far only doubling has occurred. This is very good news. I expected to see clear trends in the data by 5/1, but that doesn’t appear to be happening. Perhaps a trend will become clear next week?

The last few days, headlines have been made after Chinese authorities quarantined guests in the Metropark Hotel in Hong Kong due to a single guest having tested positive for swine flu. This broad use of Metropark is unfortunate since there are over 5 Metropark Hotels in Hong Kong and across the bay in Kowloon. I’ve stayed at a Metropark Causway Bay in 2008 and it appears to be close to if not THE impacted hotel.

Mexico is criticizing China’s response, but what they don’t understand is that Chinese cities are extremely dense with populations. There is a cultural habit of trying to get around rules, so once this flu gets out, millions of people will be impacted. China is still fighting SARS and doesn’t want another virus to fight.